Pentagon officials have made detailed preparations for deploying US ground forces into Iran, according to a CBS report.

The report says Trump is deliberating whether to position ground forces in the region.

“No, I’m not putting troops anywhere,” Trump said yesterday but quickly added:
“If I were, I certainly wouldn’t tell you.”

I wonder why this was leaked. I tend to think it might be something to bring Iran to the negotiating table but it could also be from those who think sending troops to the Middle East is a grave mistake.

Finally, it could all be part of the usual planning and options that all military officials are constantly doing. So far, the reports we have are that two units of Marines have been deployed, with about 2200 soldiers each. The first should arrive in the theatre from Japan on Sunday or early next week while the second is roughly three weeks away as it sails from California.

However if you break those units down, most would be in support rose with around 200 commandos and perhaps 700-900 possible ground combatants with a few hundred more ground-capable troops.

In contrast, there were a half-million soldiers involved in Desert Storm and an initial force of 150,000 soldiers in the 2003 Iraq invasion. Iran is 3.5x larger, much more mountainous and around 3.5x more populous. There’s also no natural place from which to stage an invasion as the mountains protect the border with Iraq.

In any case, the market doesn’t like where this is all headed and brent is now up $4 to $112 from as low as $105.05 earlier. The S&P 500 is down 1.4% and the Nasdaq down 2%.