The USDCHF continues to trade in choppy, two-way price action, reflecting broader indecision across the FX space. Today’s session has once again turned into a tug-of-war centered around one key technical barometer — the rising 200-hour moving average.

That level is not just another line on the chart. It has become the dividing line between buyers maintaining short-term structure and sellers regaining control.

Asian session: Buyers defend key support again

The first move of the day was to the downside. Price rotated lower and stalled near the rising 200-hour moving average, currently near 0.7724.

This is now the fourth test of that MA:

• February 18

• Monday’s session

• Early Asian trade today

• Current retest

Each prior test saw buyers lean against the level and force rebounds. The same pattern initially played out again today. Buyers stepped in, defended support, and pushed the pair higher.

Bounce stalls ahead of Fibonacci resistance

The rebound off the low in the Asian-Pacific session gained traction as price:

• Broke above the swing area at 0.7729–0.7740

• Moved through the 100-hour moving average at 0.7744

• Extended to a high of 0.7757

However, the rally stalled just ahead of the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 0.7769. Getting above the retracement level is essential if the buyers are to prove that they can take more control

That Fibonacci level remains firm resistance.

The failure to reach — and certainly not break — that retracement has shifted momentum back lower. The pair has now rotated back down toward the 200-hour MA once again.

The decision point: Can sellers finally break it?

The 200-hour moving average at 0.7724 is now the clear pivot.

Repeated tests weaken support over time. If sellers are able to push and hold below that level, downside momentum could accelerate.

A confirmed break below the 200-hour MA would open the door toward:

• 0.7707 – recent swing low

• 0.76998 – nearby support floor

• 0.7666 – deeper swing low target

A move below those levels would shift the short-term bias more decisively bearish.

What would restore/maintain upside momentum?

On the flip side, if the 200-hour MA holds again and buyers regain control, the next hurdles are clear:

1. Reclaim the 100-hour MA at 0.7744

2. Retest the 38.2% retracement at 0.7769

3. Break toward the swing area at 0.7784–0.7788

A sustained move above 0.7769 would signal that the recent consolidation is resolving higher rather than breaking down.

Technical Bias

The pair is currently neutral but compressed at support.

The 200-hour MA is the short-term line in the sand.

Key levels to watch:

• Support pivot: 200-hour MA at 0.7724

• Downside targets: 0.7707 → 0.76998 → 0.7666

• Resistance: 100-hour MA at 0.7744

• Key Fibonacci: 0.7769

• Upside swing area: 0.7784–0.7788

A clean break below the 200-hour MA would tilt the bias bearish.

A hold and reclaim of the 100-hour MA keeps the pair range-bound with upside potential toward 0.7769 and beyond.