President Trump gets all the attention on trade but if you want a better idea of what’s really happening — or the important details — you need to listen to US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
He spoke with the media today and clarified a few things. Most notably is clarification around tariff rates. On Friday, Trump announced 10% tariffs and then the next day said 15% but the executive order was only for 10% so there is some real confusion.
Greer said there will be a proclamation in the “coming days” enacting the 15% tariff “where appropriate”. He was asked whether lower rates would apply to the UK and EU but dodged the question. He did say that the goal was “continuity” and that suggests there is an effort to make sure that no one who negotiated a deal with the US faces a higher tariff.
This chart illustrates some of those who would face higher tariffs under a 15% regime, including Italy and the UK.
In terms of USMCA, he downplayed the threat of Trump leaving the agreement and said talks are aimed at “separate protocols with Canada and Mexico that we tack on to USMCA,” highlighting transshipment as one irk.
Overall, this sounds like:
1) USMCA is safe overall
2) The Trump admin is struggling to reconstitute tariffs under Section 122 and will struggle even more in 150 days when it expires.
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