EUROPEAN SESSION

In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda. The focus remains on the US-Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz where ships continue to be attacked. Oil prices rose back above $90 as markets readjusted their expectations of a quick end to the war.

Yesterday, Trump told Axios that there’s practically nothing left to target in Iran and that the war will end soon. Unfortunately, the market is not buying Trump’s “war to end soon” thing anymore as his words were ignored. The market now wants a definitive end.

AMERICAN SESSION

In the American session, the main highlight will be the US Jobless Claims data. Initial Claims are expected at 215K vs 213K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1850K vs 1868K prior.

As I’ve been repeating since the start of the war, the data doesn’t matter now because it’s old news at this point. With Jobless Claims it might be different because they are the timeliest data on the labour market but unless we get big deviations like Initial Claims above 260K or Continuing Claims above 1900K, it’s unlikely to be market-moving.

CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS

• 10:30 GMT/06:30 ET – BoE Governor Bailey (neutral – voter)
• 15:00 GMT/11:00 ET – Fed’s Bowman (dovish – voter)
• 16:25 GMT/12:25 ET – ECB’s Villeroy (neutral – voter)