This year’s IPO calendar is expected to feature giants like SpaceX and OpenAI. Although there is no talk that either will disappoint, there are still reasons for concern — not so much because SpaceX once insisted it wouldn’t go public until it was flying to Mars regularly, or that OpenAI started as a nonprofit, but rather the uncertain outlooks.

Starting with Elon Musk’s SpaceX, the company is rumored to be aiming for a valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion, with multiples exceeding 100 times trailing revenue. This is an extremely high bar, implying that massive future revenue growth has already been priced in. The problem is that it’s far from clear where that growth is supposed to come from.

Currently, SpaceX generates revenue from rocket launches and its Starlink satellite internet service. The good news is that it has contracts with NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense. The downside is that Starlink is more expensive and slower than traditional cable when service and equipment costs are included, and its main customer base (rural and underserved areas) is limited.

As for xAI, its revenue remains negligible compared to its expenses. Its flagship product, Grok, has a very small market share of 3.4% and is reportedly facing a brain drain. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s bigger ambitions, such as building factories on the Moon or placing servers in space, are extremely costly and unlikely to happen soon.

That said, none of this necessarily means the IPO will fail. By offering only a small percentage of its shares, the company could create a shortage, which would push prices up. However, if it joins the S&P 500, it could pose a risk to ETF holders, including pension funds, if the stock falls and pulls the broader market down with it.

Now, looking at OpenAI, beyond its enormous costs, which may or may not ever pay off, there is growing concern that competitors are quickly catching up with ChatGPT. For example, according to Mento Ventures, OpenAI’s market share in the enterprise language model sector fell from 50% in 2023 to 25% by mid-2025.

What’s the takeaway?

These long-awaited IPOs might give the markets a short-term boost, but in the long run, they could contribute to a downturn unless both companies surprise and achieve the exponential growth their prospects suggest.