I think the important thing to remember about the White House is that the Secretary of State is Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants and a Floridian. There is absolutely no love for Communist Cuba in Florida or the diaspora.
In all likelihood, the Venezuelan regime was likely allowed to hold onto power in exchange for cutting off Cuba and allowing American oil companies back in. Recently, Mexico has also said it could stop fuel shipments to Cuba.
The island is something the US has wanted for generations and this is likely the moment. The Trump administration has already thumbed its nose at international conventions with no repercussions and Cuba is isolated internationally. Domestically, the economy has buckled under the embargo and many reports say conditions are worsening.
Cuba is a state with virtually no allies now and is in the cross-hairs of the most powerful military ever that’s just 90 miles offshore. It’s not clear how much an appetite Trump has for a fight but I have little doubt that Marco Rubio will push to overthrow the government and it sounds like it could come sooner rather than later.
Is there a trade?
Cuba is a country of 11 million well-educated people, a low crime rate with some of the nicest beaches anywhere. A new government and good relations with the US would unleash a boom. US money would flow into everything and American tourism would surge. Some of this might draw investment (and people) away from Florida but there’s a fair argument that much of it would flow through the state.
Much of it depends on what the post-Communist Cuba looks like and how it transitions. We’ve seen both the good (China’s rise) and bad (the post-Soviet disaster). The effort to turn Russia capitalist overnight led to intense corruption and concentration of wealth along with instability and poor growth. My guess is that the US repeats the same mistakes because Trump will want a quick win, but maybe some lessons were learned.
If there is a trade in the short-term, it’s likely the hotel owners, which are often JVs with Spanish hotel companies.
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