• Uncertainty arising from the Middle East conflict is very high
• But from the data that we currently see, there is no urgency to raise interest rates just yet
• We are not in a rush
• We still have the large luxury of collecting data and forming our view
• But if necessary, we will of course move (to take policy action)
• The impact of the Middle East conflict on the real economy is only gradually feeding through
• We can afford to monitor what happens and then take the decision when we have the broader picture
• Full transcript (may be gated)

His comments fit with what the rest of his peers have been saying in the past two weeks more or less. And that is the ECB wants to be patient and wait on further US-Iran developments before really wanting to take action. That especially since the conflict continues to drag on for longer. And with the ceasefire extension announced, it just means that we might be seeing another week or two with a similar status quo.

As things stand, markets are also leaning more towards the ECB staying on hold next week. The odds of a rate hike are at ~22% but it feels like it should be watered down further ahead of the meeting. The odds for a move in June though are seen at ~68% currently.