ECB’s François Villeroy, Governor of the Banque de France, cautioned against premature speculation regarding the timing of future interest rate hikes. Villeroy has been emphasising that the ECB must remain “data-driven, not date-driven”.

He recently said that the ECB needs “critical mass of data” before considering rate hikes and added that any tightening would depend above all on signs that inflation is spreading ​beyond its initial drivers, particularly through underlying ​price pressures.

He noted that while the next move for the ECB is “highly likely to be upwards” a focus on specific months, such as June, is premature. In a recent panel he said that “there is no predetermined calendar” and that “our vigilance is first and foremost on the risk of persistence”.

Villeroy has been one of the most “dovish” members lately and his views are in stark contrast with the majority of other voters. He’s also retiring in early June, so his remarks carry much less weight.

The market is pricing in a 71% chance of a rate hike in June and a total of 55 bps of tightening by year-end. The only thing that could deter the ECB from hiking in June would be the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices falling significantly.