Last week, the EURUSD moved above the 50% retracement of the decline from the January 28 high to the June low. That midpoint level comes in at 1.1702. Buyers had their shot, with the price reaching near 1.1710 on both Thursday and Friday, but each attempt above the midpoint failed. The inability to extend higher ultimately helped push the pair back below the 50% level, with the price moving lower into Friday’s close.

That failure has carried over into trading today, with the EURUSD extending to the downside and now testing an important cluster of support.

The first key area comes between 1.1655 and 1.1667. That zone represents a swing area going back to late May and early June and has been tested on several occasions. Also within that area is the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.16584.

That combination makes the area a key barometer for buyers and sellers in the short term.

If buyers can hold the swing area and the 100-hour moving average, they keep some control and can look for another move back toward the 1.1702 midpoint. Getting and staying above that level would be needed to reopen the door toward last week’s highs near 1.1710 and potentially higher.

Conversely, a break below 1.1655 and the 100-hour moving average would shift the short-term bias more in favor of the sellers. The next downside target would come at the 200-day moving average near 1.1628. Below that sits the 38.2% retracement near 1.1612, followed by the rising 200-hour moving average.

So the technical battle is clearly defined. Buyers failed twice above the 50% retracement last week and are now being asked to defend the 100-hour moving average and the 1.1655–1.1667 swing area. Hold, and the buyers remain in the game. Break below, and the sellers take more control with the 200-day moving average becoming the next major target.