FX option expiries for 1 October 10am New York cut


There are a couple of expiry levels to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

They are for USD/JPY at the 158.00 and 158.25 levels, with the spot price sitting relatively nearby within 30 pips of the former and less than 10 pips of the latter strike.

That creates a fairly dense pocket of options between the 158.00 and 158.25 region, which could help anchor price action around the area heading towards the cut. That is assuming there isn’t any strong fundamental catalyst in the session ahead.

Adding to that is technical resistance in the form of the 200-day moving average at 158.46, so that could keep a lid on any upside price extensions in European trading. The near-term chart is now favouring buyers, with price action breaking back above both the key hourly moving averages around the 157.40-60 area. So, that is helping to light a spark in USD/JPY alongside a stronger dollar amid Treasury yields continuing to threaten fresh highs since overnight.

10-year Treasury yields are holding around 5.28% after a brief run up just above 5.30% earlier, its highest level since 2007. So, the pressure on the bond market will remain a key driver in influencing price action and dollar sentiment still.

Besides that, just be wary of any pushback against the move higher in USD/JPY from intervention talk. As the currency pair looks to eye another potential upside leg, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Tokyo or even Washington officials step in.

That is also another key external risk, which has heavier weightage in terms of impact compared to the expiry levels.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here and/or refer to the Q&A below.



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