The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1470 level. If broader market drivers stay relatively subdued in the session ahead, this is the kind of setup where the expiry can remain relevant in keeping price action more contained and sticky around the 1.1470 region heading towards the cut.

The expiry level doesn’t tie to any major technical significance, so the impact isn’t as profound. That as the closest technical boundary is the 100-hour moving average, and that sits at 1.1500 currently.

So, the influence of the expiries will be tied more to its size and relevance given how close it is to the spot price level. And also the fact that there is little else on the agenda in European trading today to really shake things up in broader markets.

The other notable expiry for today is the one for USD/JPY at the 157.00 level. If anything, the pull of the expiry could encourage more two-way trade and make price action around the figure more stubborn heading into the cut.

That being said, just be wary that it is a Japanese market holiday – and it will also be for the next two days. During periods of lower liquidity like this, intervention risks are heightened given that we have had precedence from Tokyo officials deciding to step into the market during such a backdrop. And with the yen having weakened by quite a bit since the BOJ decision last week, watchful eyes will be on whether there will be appetite for Tokyo to intervene again this week if things keep up.

So, dollar sentiment and intervention risks will remain two of the bigger drivers for USD/JPY price action. But amid a more muted and subdued tone in starting the week, the expiries could have a say in keeping price action more closely bound to the 157.00 level – at least for the session ahead.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here and/or refer to the Q&A below.