Key Takeaways for markets today

• USD/JPY Rally: The Yen was the biggest mover vs the USD, pushing USD/JPY up +0.65% to 155.71. The BOJ will announce its interest rate decision on Friday.

• Sterling Slump: GBP/USD fell -0.34% to 1.3375 after softer-than-expected UK inflation data cemented bets for a BoE rate cut tomorrow.

• Commodity Strength: Silver surged it is up 4.34% and Oil rallied +2.92%, while Gold posted a gain of 1%

USDJPY: The Big Mover

The Japanese Yen struggled significantly today, finishing as the worst of the major currencies against the dollar. The pair rallied +0.65% to trade at 155.71, extending from lows of 154.52 earlier in the session.

• The Catalyst: While Machinery Orders and Exports beat expectations, Imports missed. However, the focus remained on policy. The Bank of Japan will enter interest rate decision with expectations of a 0.25% rise in the targeted rate

GBPUSD: Inflation Data Weights on the Pound

The GBPUSD came under pressure earlier in the day after UK CPI data missed expectations but rebounded most of its sharp declines. The low for the day reached 1.3312. The current price is trading at 1.3375 with a high for the day near 1.3426.. Technically, the price is ending the day back above its 200 day moving average at 1.3346 and its 100 day moving average at 1.3357.

• The Data: Headline CPI eased to 3.2% (vs. 3.5% expected), driven largely by falling food prices. Core CPI dipped -0.2% month-over-month.

• The Impact: The report solidified market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut from the Bank of England when the announcer interest rate decision tomorrow, with markets now assigning a ~99.7% chance of a cut, up from 91% pre-release.

EURUSD: Flat Ahead of the ECB

The EURUSD moved lower in sympathy with the Grecovered most of the declines in the North American session to end the day marginally lower by -0.06% .

• The Outlook: Traders appear to be in a holding pattern ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting, where rates are expected to remain unchanged. However, economic clouds persist as the German Ifo index hit its lowest level since May. Nevertheless expectations are for ECB’s Lagarde to reiterate the bank will remain data -dependent

USDCAD: Technical Buyers Gain Control

The USD/CAD pair rose +0.21% to 1.3783, but the technical story is the highlight.

• Chart Watch: After multiple failed attempts where sellers defended the 100-hour moving average, buyers finally broke above this key resistance level today. The focus now shifts to whether they can sustain this momentum toward the 1.3800 level (200-hour MA). So far, that moving average has held resistance, putting the pair in a more neutral position above its 100 hour moving average at 1.3768, but below its 200 hour moving average at 1.300

Fed Governor Waller Signals Need for Rate Cuts Amid Soft Labor Market

Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivered a bearish assessment of the current economy, specifically characterizing the jobs market as “very soft” with payroll growth that is “not good.” He argued that this labor market weakness supports the case for continued interest rate cuts, estimating that the current policy rate remains 50 to 100 basis points above the neutral level. While acknowledging that inflation sits slightly above target, Waller expressed confidence that price pressures are under control, expectations remain anchored, and inflation should decline over the next few months. He advocated for proceeding at a “moderate pace” rather than taking dramatic action, and noted that while tariffs likely did not cause the current labor weakness, he remains hopeful for a stronger economic year in 2026.

Commodities & Crypto

• Silver: The standout performer, rallying $2.70 or 4.25% at $66.44

• Oil (USOIL): Gained $1.58 and $56.85.

• Gold: Ticked higher by $42.92 or 1.0% at $4345

• Bitcoin: felt $-2066 or -2.35% to $85,775.

Stocks slumped led by the tech/AI/chips

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Down -243.51 points (-0.51%) to 47,870.75.

• S&P 500 (SPX): Down -78.34 points (-1.15%) to 6,721.92.

• Nasdaq Composite (IXIC): The biggest loser, falling -410.71 points (-1.78%) to 22,700.75.

• Russell 2000 (RUT): Small caps were not spared, dipping -28.72 points (-1.14%) to 2,490.58.