Markets:

• Gold down $47 to $4690
• US 10-year yields up 3.1 bps to 4.325%
• S&P 500 down 30 points, or 0.4%
• USD leads, NZD lags
• WTI crude oil up $4.00 to $96.96

In terms of the war, no one really knows what is going on. Trump keeps saying he’s waiting for a response from Iran on negotiating but Iran keeps saying they won’t negotiate until the blockade of Iran is lifted. Meanwhile, there is a real war of words about unity as Trump and a report from Israel today highlighted turmoil but all of Iran’s top leaders said they were united. So it’s not clear if that’s some kind of psyop but the fact that Trump talks about it non-stop makes me suspicious that not all is as it appears.

The spikes to the extremes of the day (highs in oil, lows in stocks) came after the Israel report that Iran’s parliamentary chief had quit negotiations. There was also a brief report at the same time about Iran activating air defences and an Israeli strike but that was quickly halted and it was instead said to be a test of systems.

There was a recovery from there but not completely. As for the economy, the comments from corporates have been mostly upbeat and the manufacturing side of the S&P Global PMI was particularly strong.

In terms of markets, oil rose for the third day with WTI up $4.00 to $96.96 and now the ‘strait is open’ rally has been completely wiped out. Stocks fell on the day but it was a real mixed bag as there were some major winners and losers on earnings divergences. After hours, shares of INTC spiked higher as the state-backed chipmaker saw strong revenues. The short squeeze on Avis ended in dramatic fashion with a crash lower in shares.

In FX, the euro continues to bleed lower and in bonds, Treasury yields are chopping higher, both signs of war angst.