At a glance:

• Trump warned Americans to expect higher gas prices “for a little while,” adding an inflationary sting to an already complicated Fed rate outlook
• Trump painted an upbeat picture on Iran, at odds with the stalemate reality on the ground
• Trump announced via Truth Social a three-week extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire following an Oval Office meeting with Israeli and Lebanese representatives
• Israel’s UN Ambassador Danon subsequently told CNN the extension is “not 100%,” warning Hezbollah is firing rockets to undermine the truce
• Trump threatened a “big tariff” on the UK if London persists with its Digital Services Tax targeting US tech giants
• Japan core CPI rose 1.8% y/y in March, matching forecasts but below the BOJ’s 2% target for a second month; Services PPI came in hotter than expected at 3.1%
• Japan FinMin Katayama renewed verbal intervention warnings, flagging “decisive action” on yen speculation in close coordination with the US, with the yen near the 160-per-dollar line
• Asia-Pacific equities mostly in the red as markets catch up to Wall Street’s selloff; Nikkei 225 outperforms on tech strength
• US equity futures mixed; NQ futures the clear outperformer after Intel surged post-close on a strong Q1 report and raised guidance
• Trump to keynote a crypto conference at Mar-a-Lago at 12:00 EDT / 16:00 GMT on Saturday April 26, open exclusively to the top 297 holders of the $TRUMP meme coin

Markets closed out the week with a cautious tone, with Asia-Pacific bourses mostly in the red as they caught up to Thursday’s Wall Street selloff, driven by risk-off flows following reports that Israel is on high alert for a possible renewed flare-up this weekend. The Nikkei 225 was a notable exception, outperforming on the back of tech sector strength. US equity futures were mixed heading into the session, though Nasdaq futures stood out to the upside after Intel surged after hours, following a solid first-quarter report and an upgrade to its forward guidance. The dollar edged fractionally higher, trading in tight ranges. Oil remained supported but lacked conviction, while gold gave back a little ground.

The dominant macro theme from Trump’s post-market remarks was his explicit warning that Americans should brace for higher gas prices, at least in the near term. The comment carries genuine inflationary implications. Energy costs feeding through transport, logistics and consumer goods risk embedding a fresh layer of price pressure at the margin, adding complexity to the Fed’s rate path and squeezing household real incomes at a time when consumers are already under stress. Trump was his characteristically upbeat self on the Iran war more broadly, painting an optimistic picture that sat uncomfortably alongside the stalemate reality on the ground.

On the Middle East diplomatic front, Trump announced via Truth Social that the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has been extended by three weeks following an Oval Office meeting with high-ranking representatives from both countries. Trump added that Israeli and Lebanese leaders could meet at the White House during the extension period, and told reporters that Iran will need to cut off funding to Hezbollah as part of any broader resolution. The optimism from the White House was tempered, however, by Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon, who told CNN the extension is “not 100%,” warning that Hezbollah is actively firing rockets to sabotage the truce and that the Lebanese government lacks the capacity to control the group. The contrast between Trump’s Truth Social tone and Danon’s candid on-the-record assessment was instructive. The weekend ahead will likely not be quiet one.

On trade, Trump renewed his threat to hit the UK with a significant tariff if London does not drop its Digital Services Tax on US technology companies including Apple, Google and Meta. The warning reignites a recurring flashpoint in UK-US relations, putting the Starmer government under fresh pressure ahead of a planned Trump state visit.

In Japan, March national CPI data confirmed core inflation at 1.8% year-on-year, matching forecasts but sitting below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for a second consecutive month. The Services PPI reading came in hotter than expected at 3.1% against a forecast of 3.0% and a prior of 2.7%, reinforcing the view that pipeline price pressures remain firm even as headline readings stay contained. The Iran war energy shock is widely expected to push inflation back above target in coming months, keeping a June BOJ rate hike firmly in play.

Separately, Finance Minister Katayama stepped up verbal intervention on the yen in early Tokyo trading, stressing “decisive action” against speculative currency activity in close coordination with the United States, with the yen hovering near the psychologically significant 160-per-dollar level. Katayama cited oil price volatility as a driver of speculative flows and emphasised that contact with Washington would continue without interruption. The reference to US coordination echoes the conditions that preceded the first joint US-Japan currency intervention in 15 years, keeping markets on notice.

Looking ahead to Saturday, Trump is scheduled to deliver keynote remarks at a cryptocurrency conference at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach at 12:00 EDT / 16:00 GMT. The event attendance is strictly limited to the top 297 holders of the $TRUMP meme coin. Markets will be watching for any fresh policy signals on digital assets.