Well, don’t let the headline estimate fool you. Spain’s services sector increased solidly last month owing to a further rise in new business received by
companies. However, new order growth softened to its lowest level in
nine months as the latest Middle East developments start to give rise to uncertainty. Of note, new export sales declined again, whilst confidence in the outlook
was the lowest since September 2023.
Besides that, higher energy prices are also starting to be a factor as overall
operating expenses rose at a rate not seen since April 2023. That comes as input price inflation surges and is going to become more and more of a problem in the months ahead.
HCOB notes that:
“Spain’s service sector expanded at a solid rate in March,
with growth picking up on February’s low. However,
despite this improvement, when combined with a
downturn in manufacturing output in March, Spain’s
economy has experienced a weaker growth profile overall
in the first quarter of 2026. Expect therefore official data
on GDP for early 2026 to show a slower rate of expansion
than the 0.8% quarterly gain reported for the fourth
quarter of 2025.
“How growth will develop in the coming months will be
very much dependent on the duration of the war in the
Middle East. The conflict has already led to a huge degree
of business and consumer uncertainty, with panellists
noting that services new business growth has softened,
and export business, already under strain before the start
of the war, has deteriorated sharply.
“Moreover, services firms are seeing big spikes in their
energy and fuel bills, leading to the strongest increase
in overall input costs for nearly three years. With output
charges also rising markedly, firms are understandably
worried about the impact that high prices will have on
spending in the near-term – and therefore their business
performance over the coming months.”
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