• Budget surplus $215 billion versus $220 million expected. A year ago the surplus was $258 billion.
• Fiscal 2026 year-to-date deficit $954 billion versus comparable fiscal 2025 deficit of $1.049 trillion
• April net customs receipts $22.12 billion.
• Budget outlays $622 billion versus $592 billion in April 2025.
• Budget receipts $837 billion versus $850 billion in April 2025

April surplus came in at $215 billion — a miss versus the $220 billion expected, and down about 16.7% from the $258 billion surplus in April 2025. Still a solid surplus, but a meaningful step back from last year’s strong tax season performance.

The receipts/outlays squeeze tells the story of why — the government collected $13 billion less than a year ago ($837B vs $850B) while spending $30 billion more ($622B vs $592B). Higher outlays are being driven by rising interest payments on the debt, defence spending, and entitlement costs.

The tariff boost of $22.1 billion in customs receipts is one of the few bright spots on the revenue side, and would have cushioned what could have been an even bigger year-over-year drop in the surplus.

The YTD picture remains the most encouraging element — the fiscal year-to-date deficit of $954 billion is running about $95 billion better than the same point in FY2025, suggesting the tariff revenues and some spending discipline are making a modest dent at the full-year level, even if April’s monthly surplus disappointed relative to expectations.

FUN FACT 1

The latest Congressional Budget Office update shows the U.S. government has paid $628 billion in net interest expense so far in fiscal year 2026, highlighting the growing burden of servicing the national debt. Over the 212 days from October through April, Treasury interest payments averaged nearly $3 billion per day. Net interest costs are now larger than annual spending on both Medicare and Medicaid during the same period, trailing only Social Security among the government’s largest expenditures.

The CBO noted that interest costs rose by $41 billion, or 7%, from a year earlier as the total debt load increased and long-term interest rates remained elevated. Although lower short-term rates helped offset part of the increase, the overall interest burden continues to climb with each monthly budget update.

That fun fact, makes the cost of the war chump change.. The problem with that, however, is that if numbers become chump change, no one cares.

FUN FACT 2

The financial cost of the Iran war is rising rapidly, with the Pentagon now estimating direct U.S. military costs at roughly $29 billion so far, up from about $25 billion just weeks earlier. Some independent analysts argue the true cost is significantly higher when including equipment replacement, logistics, deployments, and longer-term obligations, with estimates reaching as high as $72 billion in the first two months of the conflict.

Beyond direct military spending, the broader economic cost has been felt globally through energy markets and inflation. The conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz — which handles roughly 20% of global oil shipments — have pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and driven U.S. gasoline prices sharply higher. Rising fuel costs have contributed to a jump in U.S. inflation to 3.8%, with higher transportation, food, airline, and utility costs adding pressure to consumers and businesses worldwide.

The war has also created wider economic risks, including slower global growth, supply-chain disruptions, and fears of stagflation similar to the 1970s oil shocks. Economists warn that if the conflict escalates further or if major Gulf energy infrastructure remains disrupted, oil prices could surge even higher — potentially above $150 to $200 per barrel in worst-case scenarios — increasing the economic toll dramatically.

FUN FACT 3

Tariff revenues of $149 billion were collected in October through March 2026. Adding the $22.12 billion from April that you provided puts the FY2026 running total at approximately $171 billion through April — already a massive pace compared to prior years.

As of February alone, FY2026 customs duties had reached $144.3 billion — 307.6% higher than the same point in FY2025.

Full year FY2025 for context

The federal government raised $195 billion in customs duties in FY2025, more than 250% of what it collected in FY2024. US Customs and Border Protection collected $216.7 billion in tariff revenue during FY2025 — a 146% increase from 2024. And in just the first month of FY2026 (October 2025), the government already collected $34.3 billion — nearly double the average monthly rate throughout all of FY2025.

The big catch — $166 billion may need to be refunded

With the IEEPA tariffs having been ruled illegal by the Supreme Court, the approximately $166 billion of revenue collected by the government related to those tariffs will have to be refunded. This is the refund figure mentioned in yesterday’s Treasury data and is a massive asterisk hanging over the headline collection numbers.

The long-term projections

The Tax Foundation estimates the Section 232 and Section 122 tariffs will raise $956 billion in revenue from 2026–2035 on a conventional basis, falling to $697 billion after accounting for negative economic effects. However, even with record tariff revenues in FY2025, the budget deficit still totalled $1.8 trillion — meaning tariffs covered only a fraction of overall government borrowing needs.

The bottom line: The US is collecting tariffs at an unprecedented modern pace, but legal challenges have already clawed back a huge chunk of it, and even at full run-rate, tariff revenues are nowhere near large enough to meaningfully close the deficit on their own.

FUN FACT 4

The growing cost of major Washington projects has become an increasing point of political debate, especially as the federal government continues to run large deficits and pay record interest expenses on the national debt. Among the most expensive current projects is the renovation of the Federal Reserve System headquarters in Washington, where the modernization of the historic Marriner S. Eccles Building and adjacent Federal Reserve East Building is now estimated to cost around $2.5 billion. The original budget was closer to $1.9 billion, but costs rose sharply due to inflation, labor and material expenses, hazardous material removal, structural and groundwater issues, and enhanced security requirements. Critics, including President Donald Trump, have attacked the project as excessive, while Fed officials argue the buildings required long-overdue modernization for safety, technology, accessibility, and security.

At the same time, Trump’s broader Washington redesign and monument initiatives are also expected to carry multibillion-dollar price tags. Plans include a new White House ballroom and East Wing modernization project now estimated near $400 million, with additional security and underground infrastructure costs potentially pushing the total much higher. Other proposals include a large triumphal arch near the National Mall and Arlington corridor, Rose Garden and White House redesign efforts, reconstruction plans tied to the Kennedy Center, and the National Garden of American Heroes project. Combined estimates for those projects now approach or exceed $2 billion over multiple years depending on the final scope and security requirements.