The USD is higher with the USDJPY the biggest mover with a gain of 0.59% after testing a swing level near 160.446 on Friday and bouncing and continuing the run to the upside today back through the 100 and 200 hour MA between 161.86 and 161.92. Remember the 161.95-97 was the old high from 2024 which took the pair to the highest level since 1986 during last week’s trade. The price is trading near 162.30.

The EURUSD (-0.18%) and the GBPUSD (-0.07%) are more contained but lower. For the EURUSD is it trading just below the 100 hour MA at 1.1416 with the 200 hour MA at 1.1398 as the next target. Last week, the price reached the 50% of the move down from the June 15 high at 1.14727. For the GBPUSD, the buyers tried to extend above a swing area between 1.33658 and 1.33739 on Thursday and Friday of last week, but backed off. Today, the price dipped back toward the 50% midpoint of the move down from the May 26 high at 1.33244.

The key US economic release today is the ISM Services PMI, with expectations calling for a modest pullback to 54.0 from 54.5 previously. While the consensus points to a slight slowdown, the index is still expected to remain comfortably in expansion territory.

In the American session, we get the US ISM Services PMI which is expected to ease to 54.0 vs 54.5 prior. Before that, the S&P Global US PMIs showed a small uptick in services in the preliminary release, but the agency noted that “the services sector continues to grow at an especially subdued pace, reflecting push-back from customers over high prices amid low levels of consumer confidence in particular”.

The agency also added that “input cost inflation has shown sign of cooling in June thanks in part to the lower energy prices seen at the tail end of the survey data collection period”.

Below are the expectations/prior readings for the data dump today.

• 9:45 AM ET – S&P Global Services PMI (Final, Jun): Prior 51.3
• 10:00 AM ET – Employment Trends Index (Jun): Prior 107.01
• 10:00 AM ET – ISM Services PMI (Jun): 54.0 est. vs 54.5 prior
• 10:00 AM ET – ISM Business Activity Index (Jun): Prior 57.7
• 10:00 AM ET – ISM Employment Index (Jun): Prior 47.9
• 10:00 AM ET – ISM New Orders Index (Jun): Prior 57.3
• 10:00 AM ET – ISM Prices Paid Index (Jun): Prior 71.3

Central Bank Speakers

15:00 GMT / 11:00 ET

• Christopher Waller (Fed, voter, neutral/hawkish)
• Isabel Schnabel (ECB, voter, hawkish)

16:00 GMT / 12:00 ET

• Christine Lagarde (ECB President, voter, neutral)

16:45 GMT / 12:45 ET

• Catherine Mann (BoE, voter, neutral)

18:30 GMT / 14:30 ET

• Philip Lane (ECB, voter, neutral)

US stocks are mixed (looking at the major indices). The Dow is down -32 points, the S&P is up 24 points while the Nasdaq is implying a gain of 365 points in pre-market trading.

In the US debt market yields are lower with the 2 year down -2.0 basis points at 4.11%, and the 10 year down -1.7 basis points at 4.461%.

Crude oil is down marginally (-$0.10 at $68.59). The price of gold is up $33.00 at $4156. SIlver is up $1.18 at $62.14. Bitcoin is trading at $61,943.

Congrats to England on their thrilling victory over Mexico in a hostile environment with a man down, and to Norway with Erling Haaland taking care of business vs Brazil, and France in the World Cup. Spain/Portugal, and USA vs Belgium today.

Who are you rooting for as the field gets whittled away?